The War and Its Impact on Ukraine’s Debt Picture
In February 2022, just days after the Winter Olympics, Russia’s president opted to invade Ukraine. Since then, Ukraine’s debt has grown exponentially.
Before the War
Before the war, Ukraine was managing its debt well. In 2021, Ukraine’s debt was about 49% of its total economy (GDP). The country had been working to lower its debt from 81% in 2016. Ukraine’s budget was on sound financial footing.
Debt Soars After the War Begins
When the war began, Ukraine quickly figured out it would need money – and a lot of it. By the end of 2024, Ukraine’s debt had jumped to almost $160 billion, up from just $100 billion before the war. To cover costs, Ukraine borrowed from other countries and banks, as virtually every country in the history of mankind has opted to do when invaded.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio Keeps Rising
Ukraine’s debt compared to its economy (GDP) has continued to rise. In 2023, it reached 84.4% of GDP. Experts think it could go over 100% by 2025 and might reach 107% before falling slightly to 103% in 2027. These figures are, of course, subject to significant revisions depending upon how the Ukraine war turns.
Who Does Ukraine Owe Money To?
Ukraine’s debt has also changed in who it owes. More of the money now comes from outside the country. As of early 2025, Ukraine owed almost $50 billion to the European Union, $20 billion to the World Bank, and $18 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). More of Ukraine’s debt is in foreign currency, and the amount of money it owes to other countries continues to skyrocket.
Help from Other Countries
Other countries and financial groups have helped Ukraine. In March 2025, the IMF gave Ukraine $400 million to help keep its budget running. Unsurprisingly, experts continue to worry about how Ukraine will pay back all this debt when the war ends. Some experts believe Ukraine might need to make new deals to lower its payments after the war ends.
What’s Next?
Ukraine’s biggest challenge will be balancing its debt while also trying to rebuild after the war. The World Bank says rebuilding Ukraine will cost at least $500 billion, and some experts think it could be over $1 trillion. With debt possibly going over 100% of its economy, Ukraine needs to find ways to grow its economy and attract investors.
How Does This Affect Gold?
Investors in commodities – particularly gold – are watching how Ukraine’s debt situation will play out. Why? Because what happens in Ukraine affects gold prices. So far, the war has made gold more valuable. Since February 2024, gold prices have gone up more than 60%. If Ukraine’s situation stays uncertain, gold prices will likely keep rising.
Final Thoughts
The war has caused Ukraine’s debt to grow by an uncomfortable amount. The country will need international support to recover. In the coming years, Ukraine’s government and people will be faced with very difficult social and financial questions, and how they choose to deal with their challenges could have a far-reaching effect on other countries and investment markets.
